The March 15 Fed conspiracy theory

Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

What's going on in Fed funds futures?

There hasn't been much in the way of economic news in the past few days. Durable goods orders and GDP were weak; consumer confidence was strong. Fed speak was repetitious.

But Fed funds futures hike probabilities have shot to 54% from 37% since Thursday.

Why?

One idea is pure manipulation. A bank that wants to see a hike might be buying Fed funds futures to try and somehow manipulate the Fed's thinking.

Or it could be some other kind of leak from the Fed?

Or maybe someone is just making a big bet it's going to happen as they take a closer look at the data.

What's curious is that the US dollar hasn't gone along for the ride. That suggests it's not fundamental.

In the hour ahead we will hear from a couple of Fed Presidents who find themselves on the hawkish side of the spectrum. First is Harker at 2000 GMT and Williams at 2030 GMT.

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