UBS on the yen after the BOJ: "Most of the move has already occurred"

I posted on UBS' views for the Bank of Japan announcement (due Friday) earlier in the week: UBS: FOMC on hold & BOJ 50/50 further easing this week

I've just been asked in the comments if more action from the BOJ Friday will be enough to push USD/JPY higher

My terse response: No.

Here is more from the same UBS note (bolding mine):

• BoJ easing, along with a coordinated fiscal stimulus via a supplementary budget should be USDJPY positive; the problem for yen bears is that we think most of the move has already occurred.
• Anticipation for easing has increased following the news of additional stimulus (which we also expect) and talk of "helicopter money" (which we do not expect).
• As we and UBS Economics noted yesterday, we think the market is pricing a decent probability (we estimate around 60%) of ¥10 trn in QQE expansion.
• The percentage of Bloomberg forecasters expecting easing is even higher.
• As such, we don't think the risk/reward in long USDJPY is favourable ahead of Friday's meeting.

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I posted earlier in the week that the BOJ appears to be backed into a corner. If they don't ease further the yen sill soar. If they do ease it'll go higher anyway as its baked in.