Update to predictions for what the RBA will do at its October policy meeting

Westpac created a stir last week with a forecast of an October rate cut (and other moves) from the Reserve Bank of Australia at the October 6 meeting.

This week though WPAC changed that forecast to the November meeting instead.

• to cut the overnight cash rate to 0.1%; the three year target bond rate to 0.1%; the rate on the Term Funding Facility to 0.1%; and the rate the RBA pays on Exchange Settlement balances to 0.01%.

None of the other big local banks are looking for a move from the RBA in October. NAB says its possible but prefer Nov:

• NAB expects further RBA easing as soon as the first week of October

• CBA is forecasting the RBA on hold at the next meeting
• ANZ do not expect the RBA to cut in October

Just scanning some reports of other forecasts:

Capital Economics are still calling October:

• CE look for a cash rate cut, 3 year yield target & term funding facility interest rate all to 0.1%
• RBA to announce further bond buying
• "announcing more support alongside the budget would send a strong Team Australia message"

Morgan Stanley see further RBA easing in February 2021 (rate cut to 0.1%, a 'modest' quantitative target" for bond purchases)

• On an RBA move next Tuesday, federal budget day ... "We think this is unlikely - given the importance of fiscal policy we think it will at least want to assess the budget before a further move, and recent commentary suggests that supply-side restrictions would also be a barrier for further easing"