Looks like the ECB is getting ahead of the inflation story. Bundesbank president Weber said earlier today that the Bank sees inflation rising past the ECB’s target in the short-term but returning below the 2% target in the medium-term. Inflation will peak around 2.4% in march of this year, he forecasts.

So there we have it. If inflation stays below 2.4% in the next few months, no hike from the ECB. If it creeps above, than we are in the danger zone.