A reaction to the home loan rate hike from Westpac this morning and the implication for the next Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (November 3)

Its from Dr. Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital

He says (I'm paraphrasing his tweets but this is the gist):

  • Westpac 0.2% hike in all mortgage rates to cover cost of extra capital
  • Other banks are likely to follow
  • The Australian economy can't handle rate hikes now
  • So Westpac's move makes it more certain RBA will cut again
  • Watch the November meeting for a 0.25% cut

Market pricing of the potential for a November cut agrees with Dr. Oliver, its gone from around 35% to 50%

AUD is still on the slide, too:

AUD buy orders clustered around 0.7200 should provide some support.

"Should" .... I'll check out if these bids are being pulled looking for better entries ...