Interest rate (and more) announcement coming up from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on November 11 at 0100 GMT.
Governor Orr press conference follows at 0200 GMT
Earlier posts:
- RBNZ meeting: What's the trade?
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting Wednesday 11 November 2020 - preview
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting November 11 - preview
- RBNZ meeting on Wednesday 11 November 2020 - preview
Preview via Citi now:
- RBNZ is likely to leave the OCR unchanged at 0.25% ... though it's not likely, a rate cut to 0.1% at this week's meeting cannot be ruled out completely
- while introducing the FLP in preparation for negative interest rates next year
- We believe the overall message will remain dovish
On the kiwi $:
- With the USD weakening overall currently, we do not expect the RBNZ's dovish stance to lead directly to NZD depreciation.
- We think NZDUSD can continue to rise towards its 2019 high of around 0.69 in the near term.
- However, given that the RBNZ retains room for further easing while the RBA has now exhausted its options, our belief is that the rise in NZD will be limited compared with AUD in the medium term. We expect AUDNZD to test last month's high of around 1.09 after the meeting this week, with the 200d MA (around 1.065 now) as substantial continuous support.
