Earlier preview notes are here:
- Goldman Sachs expect FOMC rate hikes in March, June, Sept and Dec but the risk is for more
- Société Générale - "Fed is likely to push back"
- Scotia expects a Federal Reserve lift-off rate hike in March
- Federal Reserve FOMC meeting this week -BoA expect on hold
- Tomorrow's FOMC likely to trigger another leg of USD rally - BofA
Something to consider going into this meeting is highlighted by BoA, potential weakness of the labour market in January. Analysts at the bank not that the Omicron outbreak was a heavy negative for labour supply be cause or workers required to isolate:
- 8.75m people reported not working because they were caring for someone or sick with Covid. This is up from 2.96mn on December 14
Thus:
- We see strong downside risks to January payrolls
The FOMC will be aware of this and while its 'transitory' (cough) it'll be a factor in discussion keeping the committee a little less hawkish (for now) than otherwise.
