ANZ with their Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecast:
We’re forecasting the OCR to lift to 4% by year-end, very similar to the RBNZ’s track. But that’s conditional on a neutral OCR of about 2%. Signs that neutral might be higher would be indications that monetary policy isn’t getting the traction expected, eg housing market green shoots or household spending refusing to roll over. That’s not to say that interest rate risks are all to the upside. Recent data out of China highlights growth risks in our largest trading partner. Youth unemployment reached 19.9% in July, and the PBOC cut their policy rate by 10bps to 2% earlier this week as a softening property sector and the ongoing zero-COVID approach continue to weigh on the economy. But for now, the RBNZ’s focus is firmly on medium-term inflation pressures.
And, NZD FX forecasts:
