ANZ are forecasting a 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in November 2024:
- Overall, today’s CPI data adds to the growing body of evidence that the RBNZ has done enough. There are now clear signs that weak demand and increasing spare capacity across the economy are flowing through to lower domestic inflation outcomes. In the context of the recent deterioration in domestic activity and labour market indicators, today’s CPI starting point points to downside risk to our medium-term inflation outlook.
- We have brought forward our forecast timing of the first 25bp cut in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to November, rather than in February. We see the balance of risks around that as tilted towards earlier (October) rather than later. Beyond that, we are forecasting a steady run of 25bp cuts at each meeting to a terminal rate of 3.5% as before.
Earlier:
