Main points made by Westpac in thier CPI preview, saying "June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut":
- Westpac confirms its June quarter CPI forecast of 1.0%qtr/3.8%yr which we first released on June 18 and left unchanged at our July 2 update.
- Our Trimmed Mean forecast is also unchanged at 0.9%qtr/4.0%yr.
- For June, our forecast for a 0.3% rise in the month, which would see the annual pace ease from 4.0%yr in May to 3.5%yr in June (we did have 3.6%yr in early July). June will provide a critical update on some services, including: rates & property charges, water & sewerage, child care, dental services, veterinary & other services for pets, and other financial services.
- As our Chief Economist Luci Ellis recently expressed “we not that special” and it is unlikely Australia would move in the opposite direction to global disinflationary forces.
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June month and Q CPI is due from Australia on July 31.
The RBA meet the following week, August 5 and 6.
