The monthly CPI data is due on Wednesday March 1, 2023
- at 11.30 am Sydney time
- 0030 GMT
- 7.30pm US Eastern time
The Monthly inflation indicator for January 2023.
December's was a whopping 8.4%. The December report was released the same day as the Q4 CPI, this was also a shockingly high result, 7.8%. The data were key to locking in the February Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike.
Monthly inflation data from Australia is a proxy for the more thorough quarterly figure:
- it provides a more timely view on inflation
- but it is an incomplete update, only an approximation
- it covers around 60% of price updates, and only applies to the first month of the Jan, Feb, March quarter (d'uh)
- analysts point to especially poor coverage of market services components of the inflation basket this month
Expectations I have seen for the January figure centre on 7.9%.
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The RBA seem locked into another rate hike in March. The meeting is on the 7th and +25bp is widely expected. This will take the cash rate too 3.6%, still well below the current inflation rate.
