- Median 2024 estimate 1.2%
- Probability of a recession in 6-12 months at 48%
- End 2024 CPI seen at 2.2%
- First cut seen in April, second in July, third in Sept
- Year end 2024 rate seen at 4.00% (vs 5.00% now)
- Year end 2025 seen at 2.88%
- 75% of participants said risks skewed towards higher rates
- End 2024 Canadian 5-year yield seen at 3.15% (vs 3.85% currently)
- Full survey
This survey was done in late September so it's a bit stale but it's good idea of what should be expected. It will be interesting to see if Macklem continues to try and push back against rate cuts.