Macklem nothing to see here meme house
  • Median 2024 estimate 1.2%
  • Probability of a recession in 6-12 months at 48%
  • End 2024 CPI seen at 2.2%
  • First cut seen in April, second in July, third in Sept
  • Year end 2024 rate seen at 4.00% (vs 5.00% now)
  • Year end 2025 seen at 2.88%
  • 75% of participants said risks skewed towards higher rates
  • End 2024 Canadian 5-year yield seen at 3.15% (vs 3.85% currently)
  • Full survey

This survey was done in late September so it's a bit stale but it's good idea of what should be expected. It will be interesting to see if Macklem continues to try and push back against rate cuts.