Bank of Japan Governor Ueda comments this week have watered down YCC tweak expectations

Adam had the comments from BOJ Gov Ueade here:

• doesn't sound like a guy who wants to change YCC at the end of the month.

Justin had more on this ICYMI:

• he certainly doesn't sound like he is about to bring about any imminent changes to the BOJ policy settings

MUFG commented on Ueda's remarks, saying although he acknowledged the improvement in market functioning, we already knew that. MUFG says at this point, the decision to change the YCC will primarily be based on economic fundamentals rather than market functionality, although potential future risks of dysfunctional markets may also be taken into consideration.

On the market's response to Ueda's remarks, it suggests that there will be less speculation about a YCC change next week, though MUFG do argue that the forecast update could still provide the justification. And that in their opinion it is preferable for the BoJ to change the YCC when yields are not rising quickly and are not in danger of breaching the 0.50% band limit than when they are.

MUFG finish up:

• CPI data on Friday will remain key and the data could prompt renewed speculation once more. But in a backdrop of improved risk appetite and soft-landing optimism, USD/JPY is understandably recovering some lost ground.

The data is due on Friday 8.30am Tokyo time,

• which is Thursday, 20 July 2023 at 2330 GMT and 7.30pm US Eastern time