Bloomberg (gated) poll of analysts on what is expected at the Bank of Japan meeting January 17 and 18.
While Bloomberg is gated, the main points:
- survey of 43 economists
- all but one predicting the central bank to leave policy unchanged next week
- 38% of respondents now forecast moves either in April, when a new governor takes the helm, or in June (up from 15% in last month’s poll)
- more than half of the economists see the bank moving toward normalization by the end of July
Bloomberg add:
- Even with a baseline scenario of a policy hold in January, many analysts indicated that they held that view with far less conviction than they did last month. The upcoming gathering should still be considered a live meeting with a risk of back-to-back change, they said.
Live meeting? For sure. Prior to the December meeting Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda was adamant he was not budging ... then he flipped and expanded the range for JGB yields (10yr) under YCC.
The perception following the December meeting:
Further comment from the Bloomberg report:
- “The confusion the BOJ created hasn’t settled down, in fact it’s spreading,” Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities, wrote in his survey response.
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will step down on April 8 at the end of his reign.
His governorship began on 20 March 2013.
10+ years in the job, he's seen off many of his global peers including Draghi, Yellen, Carney.
