BlackRock expects Fed rate cuts in spring-summer, bank analysts predict multiple easings

BlackRock's investment arm is quite vague on when the expect the first, and subsequent, rate cuts coming from the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), saying only "around the end of the spring into the summer".

Bank analysts have been more precise:

Goldman Sachs expects the easing cycle to begin in March

• sees three straight rate cuts by the Fed in March, May, and June

J.P.Morgan, BofA expect easing to begin June

• JPM see a target Fed Funds range 125bp lower by the end of 2024

Barclays are also in June for cut #1

• three 25 bps cuts next year, from June
• said cuts could begin sooner than its June projection if monthly inflation remains softer than its forecasts
• but are wary, with concerns that inflation could rise again

UBS expect three 25 bps cuts next year, from May

• UBS says 3 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024 is not really an easing of policy

Citi expects cuts beginning in July, 100bp in total for 2024, but are wary of upside risks in inflation yet to manifest.

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The fed funds target range is currently 5.25-5.50%