- Weak activity in the UK is not putting much downward pressure on inflation
- Uk labour market is tight but driven as much by weak supply as strong demand
- We have had good news on headline inflation but need to look at persistent components too
- Only modest evidence of a reversion in inflation to a level that is compatible with the inflation target
- Still only modest evidence of needed fall in wage growth
- Getting to the point of reducing Bank Rates "still some way off"
The BOE has been trying to emphasize the different with the US for many months but the market doesn't really believe it. There are 63 bps in cuts priced in for the BOE this year compared to 89 bps for the Fed.