- German economy to be measurably hurt by Russia-Ukraine war, starting from March
- Supply chain problems to worsen as a result
- Higher energy prices to dampen German household consumption, industrial output
- German economic rebound in Q2 will be much weaker than expected
- German inflation to rise further due to higher prices for energy, wheat, industrial goods
Yup, and what affects Germany is more or less going to weigh heavily on the euro area as a whole. This is a risk that the ECB needs to consider as higher inflation continues to pressure policymakers into hiking rates into what will be a slowing economy.