CBA expect the first RBA rate cut in Q1 24, but the risk is for later

Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts after yesterday's RBA decision. In summary:

• cash rate steady at 4.10% in September, the third consecutive on hold decision
• A tightening bias was retained, with uncertainty around services inflation still top of mind.
• China risks were also noted.
• The RBA sound comfortable that higher interest rates are working and we expect the hurdle to hike again remains high.
• We expect 4.10%to be the peak in interest rates.
• The next move in the cash rate should be down. We expect the first rate cut in Q1 24. However the risks are for a later start to the easing cycle.

RBA decision ICYMI:

• RBA leaves the cash rate unchanged at 4.10%
• The full statement of the September RBA monetary policy meeting decision

And, a different view:

• NAB expect one final RBA interest rate rise, +0.25% in November

The RBA cash rate vs. Australia's inflation rate.