From CBA, in brief:
- We ascribe a 55% chance to no change and a 45%probability to a 25bp rate increaseto 3.85% (we consider the risk of any other move immaterial)
- The actions of many other central banks globally over the past two weeks lend weight to the RBA continuing to tighten policy despite some concerns within pockets of the global banking system(outside of Australia)
- But the domestic economy is now showing sufficient signs of slowing and we expect the RBA Board will judge that a pause in the tightening cycle is the appropriate move in April
- The Board can resume increasing the cash rate in May following a pause in April the economic data makes the case
- The February monthly CPI indicator confirmed that inflation peaked in Q4 22 and looks to be coming down a touch quicker than the RBA’s implied forecast profile. In addition wages growth remains consistent with the inflation target
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Note, the RBA will have better CPI data by the May meeting, the official quarterly CPI is due on April 29.
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Reminder:
- Tuesday April 4
- Statement will be at 2.30pm Sydney time, this is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time
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Earlier:
- RBA April 4 meeting preview - Westpac says the RBA has a preference to pause, and will
- NAB slashed their peak RBA cash rate forecast - here's what others expect
ANZ is the only one of the 'big 4' Australian banks to forecast a 25bp rate hike on April 4