Everything from Timiraos is magnified since his June leak. His latest says the CPI "could keep Federal Reserve officials on track to approve a half-percentage-point interest-rate increase next month, even as they pencil in slightly higher rates next year than they had anticipated previously."
Market pricing for 50 bps is at 71% with the remainder at 75 bps. The terminal rate is at 4.88% which is higher than the 4.60% median but not as high as the 5.00-5.25% terminal rate signaled by others.
We get a flood of Fedspeak today:
Fed Logan at 9:35 am ET
Fed Daly at 11 am ET
Fed Mester at 12.30 pm ET
Fed George at 1:30 pm ET
