ECB AI
  • Prior decision
  • Main refinancing rate 4.50% vs 4.50% expected
  • Prior 4.50%
  • Deposit facility rate 4.00% vs 4.00% expected
  • Prior 4.00%
  • Marginal lending facility 4.75%
  • Prior 4.75%
  • Incoming information has broadly confirmed previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook
  • Aside from an energy-related upward base effect on headline inflation, the declining trend in underlying inflation has continued
  • Tight financing conditions are dampening demand, and this is helping to push down inflation
  • Future decisions will ensure that policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary
  • Stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% target over the medium-term
  • Based on current assessment, interest rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to this goal
  • Intends to continue to reinvest, in full, principal payments from maturing securities purchased under PEPP during 1H 2024
  • Full statement

No surprises there from the ECB, as you'd expect. The language in the statement shows that they see the disinflation process continuing but it doesn't mean that the job is done just yet. The euro is little changed as a result as this is in line with what markets are expecting from the statement. It's now over to Lagarde's press conference to see what comes next.