ECB may hike by 25bps, may not be enough to trigger a clean EURUSD breakout above 1.11

This is via the folks at eFX.

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Comments from Citi:

• "EURUSD is modestly lower at 1.096 - the trajectory from here hinges on the upcoming large event risks. CitiFX Strategy say that while ECB may hike by 25bps, this may not be enough to trigger a clean EURUSD breakout above the 1.11 level (despite their structural bullish EUR case)," Citi notes.
• "Our colleague is watching a weekly close below 1.0909, which would then show a reversal the upside trend. Two overnight matters helped solidify a 25bps hike," Citi adds.

ECB is on Thursday:

• 1215 and 1245 GMT
• 0815 and 0845 US Eastern time