Lagarde uncertain
ECB rate hike odds are rising today and now sit at precisely 50% compared to a 50% chance of no hike.
The only fundamental news today was the German ZEW business sentiment survey. The main index improved to -11.4 from -12.3 but the metric of current conditions fell to -79.4 from -71.3. That's hardly a reason to hike rates but we've certainly heard a pushback from hawks leading into the decision and those betting on 'no change' are getting nervous.
Watch them go and hike 12.5 bps and stump everyone.