- The next move will be a rate cut and it is within our reach
- A rate cut in June is more probable than April but exact timing is secondary to the decision's impact
- Patience is essential before making pivotal decisions
- ECB is not behind the curve, it is markets getting ahead of the event
- Disinflation signs are positive but not yet enough to make a confident conclusion
As has been the case in the last month, it is a he says, she says situation. Traders have now even fully priced in a 25 bps rate cut for April with 142 bps worth of cuts priced in for the year. Will the ECB cave in to that eventually?