- Monetary policy needs to remain restrictive until we can be confident that inflation will sustainably return to our medium-term target
- Persistently low productivity growth increases the risk that firms may pass higher wage costs on to consumers, which could delay inflation goal timing
The odds of an April rate cut are at ~53% at the moment. So, it remains the case that traders are not dissuaded by the ECB to rule out such a move. The euro is little changed against the dollar today at 1.0767 currently. There are large option expiries in play, keeping price action rather contained for the time being.
