• ECB is in the process of normalising policy
  • There is no tradeoff between growth and inflation

Even Lagarde seemed rather pensive about a 50 bps rate hike earlier, so it isn't so much of a surprise really. The issue for the ECB in my view isn't getting rates from -0.5% to 0% but rather lifting rates significantly in positive territory - more so if they want to talk up any chance of getting to the supposed neutral rate.

In any case, Villeroy did earlier in the day come out to say that rate hikes in July and September are "likely a done deal". That alludes more to a 25 bps rate move in each meeting.