Via a Bloomberg (gated) survey of analyst expectations for the European Central Bank's depo rate this year.
- economists surveyed see a 25bp rate cut in June, September, October and December
- bringing the deposit rate to 3%
- the December 2023 survey had 3 rate cuts expected
- meanwhile market pricing is showing around 6 cuts priced in, beginning in April
While that’s one more move than expected in last month’s survey, it’s still more conservative than the six, starting April, that investors are pricing.
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Some ECB officials are pushing back:
- ECB's Holzmann says should not count on rate cuts at all this year
- ECB's Nagel: It is too early to talk about rate cuts
