- I still think the 'golden path' is possible
- Higher inflation this year has mostly looked like a blip, or a bump in the road
- If you take a step back, the arc of inflation is clearly down
- Goods are basically back to pre-pandemic inflation, services are a bit higher 'but within shooting distance', the whole puzzle is housing, which is partly just mechanical
- If we used European measures on housing inflation, we would already be at 2%
- The evidence is that there was a lot more immigration than we thought a year ago. That makes me cautious on over-interpreting the non-farm payrolls number
- I don't like tying our hands, it completely depends on how inflation goes
- The unemployment rate is up but it's still just 4%
This is a change in tone from Goolsbee, as he expresses more worries about inflation