fomc meeting room
  • Actions taken to calm conditions lowered near-term risks, allowing them to judge a hike as appropriate
  • Several participants noted they considered whether it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged
  • Several participants noted wage growth was still well-above rates consistent with 2% inflatio ntarget
  • Participants assessed that labor demand is substantially exceeding supply
  • Generally saw inflation risks tilted higher
  • Tightening credit was likely to weigh on demand, which could help inflation
  • Little evidence pointing to disinflation for core services excluding housing
  • Fed staff forecast a mild recession

I don't see anything here that offers a hint on what's coming in May. The market is pricing in a 71% chance of a 25 bps hike but that would be the end of the line.