- Actions taken to calm conditions lowered near-term risks, allowing them to judge a hike as appropriate
- Several participants noted they considered whether it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged
- Several participants noted wage growth was still well-above rates consistent with 2% inflatio ntarget
- Participants assessed that labor demand is substantially exceeding supply
- Generally saw inflation risks tilted higher
- Tightening credit was likely to weigh on demand, which could help inflation
- Little evidence pointing to disinflation for core services excluding housing
- Fed staff forecast a mild recession
I don't see anything here that offers a hint on what's coming in May. The market is pricing in a 71% chance of a 25 bps hike but that would be the end of the line.