- Recent downshift in the pace of hikes allows the Fed to assess more data as it moves policy to sufficiently restrictive levels
- Inflation has been declining, data points to subdued growth ahead
- Monetary policy's drag on US economic growth and employment likely to increase in 2023
- Tentative signs labor demand is cooling
- Wages do not appear to be driving inflation
- Tentative signs of moderating wage growth
- Risk-management posture needed to defend inflation expectations anchor
We've heard these talking points repeated many times before. It's going to take more weak data to get the Fed to back off on 5-5.25% rates.