- Leaving it up to Chair Powell on how large rate hikes should be at any given meeting, steps don't matter on a macro level
- In terms of how long to stay high, can moderate based on incoming data
- A minimum level for restrictive policy would be 5-5.25%
- Once disinflation begins, it could proceed rapidly as businesses compete
- Recent retail sales data suggests household spending cushion remains
- October inflation data encouraging but could easily go the other way next month
- Not seeing much cooling in labor market
- Fed will want to err on the side of keep rates higher for longer
Bullard continues to strike a hawkish note. That's not helping the tone in markets but everyone in markets knows his song and dance so it's not going to change anyone's thinking.
