- Households have much savings from the pandemic
- No sign from households that they are pulling back on spending meaningfully
- Labour market is very strong
- Rate hikes will slow down the economy but only slow it down to trend growth
- There will just be a moderate slowdown in the economy, not a major one
- It will be unusual to return to a recession unless there is a big shock
- We are not even near neutral rate yet to control inflation , so too early to talk about recession probabilities
There isn't anything here that suggests that he is on the same page as Powell about demand destruction and he is certainly going out of his way to reassure that a recession isn't imminent in the US.