fed bullard
  • GDP number is currently misleading
  • I don't think recession models are particularly accurate
  • GDI a better measure at the moment
  • Based on these inflation numbers, core PCE hasn't peaked yet
  • We have a ways to go on inflation
  • I think most-recent inflation report means Fed should now target 3.75% policy rate by year end (he previously said 3.50%)
  • We could do more on rates sooner or spread it out over the remaining meetings of the year
  • Need to move expeditiously to try and quash inflation as soon as we can
  • Inflation is proving to be broader and more persistent
  • Says he's open to debating the tactics of a rate rise
  • Later in 2023 we can evaluate balance sheet reduction but that's a discussion for the future
  • The Fed today has a lot more credibility that Volcker Fed
  • If the Fed plays its cards right, inflation can come down to 2% over the next 18 months

Yesterday, Bullard said "I think 75 basis point has a lot of virtue to it" today he is taking a bit of a different tone.