Bullard bull
  • Notes that he will defer to Powell
  • Says he will try to convince is colleagues about his position
  • Says he is taking last four inflation reports as a whole
  • Inflation is higher than any time it was during the Greenspan era
  • Doubles down on the idea of 100 bps by July 1
  • The Fed needs to follow through and ratify market expectations
  • Typical comment from his contacts is that supply chain disruptions will last all the way through 2022 and into 2023
  • We're going to need the runoff to start very soon
  • We have a long ways to go to be restrictive
  • We could end up in a pickle if we don't do something in the next couple months
  • Would like to see balance sheet steepen the yield curve
  • I would like a Plan B as using asset sales, if necessary
  • How selling bonds would work is an open question and that could put more upward pressure on the longer end
  • I would be happy at this point to start with a passive runoff
  • Everyone I talk to is scrambling for workers and I expect to see that reflected in wages

Treasury yields are moving significantly higher as he doubles down on the idea of 100 bps by July 1. The headlines might not have captured the full flavour of the comments. He was sheepishly saying it and highlighting that he will defer to the Fed chair.