- Base case remains relatively slow growth for the rest of the year and into 2024
- Recession arguments are overstated
- The September median of the Fed funds target of 5.11% (dot plot) was based on slow growth and inflation improvements that have not occurred
- The Fed will have to go higher on policy rate perhaps 50 basis points more hiking this year (the current rate is 5.25%)
- Wants to fight inflation while the labor market is strong
- Companies still scrambling for workers. Job growth above trend
- Core measures of inflation have not changed much in recent months
- If inflation is not controlled, Fed will have to do a lot more
- The Fed should err on the side of doing more
- The US decoupling from China is a major issue.
- Not anticipating changes to QT anytime soon
Bullard's comments are once again more hawkish
8:46 AM ET: The stocks in premarket have dipped a bit but remains positive with the Dow up 28 points. The NASDAQ is up 4.5 points while the S&P is up 3.5 points.
The two-year yield is up 2.4 basis points to 4.315%. In your yield is at 3.703% up 1.1 basis points.
Last week, Bullard advocated for higher interest rates as a measure against inflation . He expressed an inclination towards another rate hike in the upcoming June meeting but maintained an open mind. Bullard pointed out that the recent fall in treasury yields counterbalances the tightening in the banking sector. Despite these dynamics, he still believes that interest rates are at the lower end of being sufficiently restrictive and foresees a potential rise above 6%. However, Bullard suggested that it would be more prudent to aim for a mid-range interest rate, around 5.5%, to maintain economic stability.