Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins gives 2023 Goldman Lecture in Economics, "Reflections on Policymaking Amidst (Pandemic) Uncertainty".
Headlines via Reuters:
- Fed is at or near peak of rate hike cycle
- Further rate hike could be warranted depending on incoming data
- Expects Fed to keep policy restrictive for some time
- Policy must stay restrictive until clear sign inflation moves to target of 2%
- Optimistic inflation can be tamed with ‘orderly slowdown,’ small jobless rise
- Policy patience will give fed time to get read on economy
- Main uncertainty is measuring impact of past fed actions
- Fed faces challenges in extracting signal from economic data
- Cooler core inflation will need softer labor market
- Too soon to say core inflation on trend for 2%
- Chance of a soft landing has gotten higher for economy
- As savings dwindle, economy becoming more responsive to rate policy
I would have though some of these officials would be a little more circumspect given we get the latest CPI reading later on Thursday. Especially after the blow out PPI:
And then ...
Is there a little bit of sleepwalking going on? I don't want to be a curmudgeon but 2.2% vs. 1.6% and stocks continue merrily higher?
O
K
then ...
