Susan M Collins
  • Increased uncertainty about monetary policy
  • Fed will have to raise rates again to help lower to high inflation
  • Fed forecast of one additional hike in 2023 looks reasonable
  • After hiking again Fed will likely hold steady for remainder of the year
  • Financial sector stress has taken some pressure off Fed to hike rates
  • Banking sector are strong, resilient but likely to pull back on lending
  • Likely lending cutbacks will restrain economy
  • Supported Fed's most recent 25 basis point hike
  • Will use all necessary tools to counter financial market stress
  • The economy is a stronger-than-expected
  • Economy likely still feeling shift in Fed policy to more restrictive stance
  • Job market strength is likely to moderate

Tomorrow the core PCE data will be released at 8:30 AM with the expectations of a rise of 0.4% for the month of February. That is still too high given the Fed's target of 2.0%. However with bank credit tightening, that will have an additional effect on the economy and potentially inflation .

US stocks have come off a bit and trading near lows for the day.

  • Dow industrial average is down 24 points are -0.07% at 32693
  • S&P is up 8.72 points or 0.21% at 4036
  • NASDAQ index is up 54 points or 0.46% at 11980

In the US debt market, the yields are off their highs but still relatively low:

  • 2 year yield 4.107%, +2.7 basis points
  • 5 year yield 3.675%, unchanged
  • 10 year yield 3.556% -1.0 basis points
  • 30 year yield 3.756% -2.1 basis points