Fed's Cook sees US soft landing: lower inflation, no significant jobless rise

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook

• speaking on "Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges" before the 2024 Australian Conference of Economists

Cook (info via Reuters):

• "My baseline forecast...is that inflation will continue to move toward target over time, without much further rise in unemployment,"
• soft landings are "more likely when policy easing began with inflation already close to target and when there was a relatively firm growth backdrop"
• "In the U.S., what I have seen so far appears to be consistent with a soft landing: Inflation has fallen significantly from its peak, and the labor market has gradually cooled but remains strong."

As a Governor of the Bank Cook has a vote at every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

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The Fed next meets on July 30-31. On hold is expected, with the chance of a September rate cut firming up. Not everyone agrees:

• "Fed has no business lowering rates now ... lost touch with economic reality"
• Goldman Sachs on US, "absolutely a soft landing", Fed rate cut cycle to begin in September