- Encourging to see inflation coming down
- Fed has to be a little more patietn in assesing if inflation on sustainable path
- We continue to see service sector inflation
- Inflation sector pressures set to continue
- I need to see progress on that to have more confidence
- We are in a good place today
- Fed facing a very tight labor market
- ON supply side from the labor market, there are some binding constraints that make it difficult for inflation to come down in a convincing manner
- Need to see job opening come down
- Still a lot of money on household balance sheets
Fed's George is not a voting member and is set to retire shortly.
Last night NY Fed Pres. Williams said:
- Inflation is still to high
- The Fed still has more work to do to bring inflation down to their goal of 2%
- Job growth remains strong
- He expects growth to be moderate in 2023
- He is not changing his view on rate forecast. WIll be based on data
Meanwhile, while the Fed forecasts 5.13% for the terminal rate, the market forecasts the Fed cutting to 4.43% by year end. That is a 71 basis point difference between the Fed target and what the market is currently pricing in.
Later today Fed's Chris Waller will be speaking at 1 PM. He is probably the last Fed official to speak before the blackout period before the February 1 meeting. Waller is thought to be more of a hawk. Hence his comments will be monitored for a easing of those views.