Fed Pres. Esther George
Kansas City Pres. Esther George on the wires saying:
- speed at which interest rates should rise an open question
- moving too fast risks over steering
- communicating the path for rates is far more consequential than the speed of policy change
- recession projections suggest to me that rapid rate hikes risk tightening faster than the economy and markets and can adjust
- abrupt changes in rates could create strains in the economy
- transmission of policy to economy will be lagged and subject to considerable uncertainty
- uncertain as to how high rates will need to rise
- pace of rate increases need to be carefully balanced against the state of the economy and financial markets
- steady path of rate increases could improve market functioning and assist balance sheet one off
- GDP still 2.5% below pre-pandemic trend suggests pandemic data long-lasting damage to the supply-side, particularly service sector
- nature of inflation suggest tight economy rather than specific supply disruptions are driving prices
- raising short-term rates faster than long-term rates adjust could inverted yield curve and stress banks
George dissented at the last Fed meeting preferring to raise rates by 50 basis points vs. the 75 basis points enacted.