Goolsbee
- Decision last week was a close call for me
- It is a perfectly appropriate to have a reconnaissance mission now
- Trying to figure out if we have done enough, how much more needs to be done
- Over next several months will get some markers on do we have a handle on inflation
- Job numbers are extremely robust
- At the same time hours worked went down
- Over the next couple months will get a sense if goods inflation is coming down
- By the fall, housing inflation should begin falling
- We should be able to get yay ordinate readings on persistence of inflation, not just confusing signals
- I've not decided the right decision in July
- We failed to prevent inflation, feds forecasting like private forecasts was mistaken
- Inflation is pervasive around the world
- Feds framework is 'wait and see'
- Probably won't gain enough info in 6 weeks, but will learn more
- The lags argument is a tremendously important one
- it's worth recognizing how bizarre, unprecedented this pandemic has been
- Added to the 'weirdness' of the pandemic is the uncertain effect of credit tightening and the persistence of inflation
- The puzzle has been why haven't goods price come down more, and when will housing prices come down
- Services inflation has proved very persistent
The more dovish comments from Goolsbee has seemed to give the dollar a push lower.
The EURUSD is trading to a new session highs. The USDCHF, USDCAD and NZDUSD are also trading to new extremes (lower USD) for the day.