- We have to sit for awhile at restrictive rates
- I'd like to see us get above 3.4% and then maybe sit for awhile but it depends on the data
- We've got to get inflation under control.
- I'm focused on the distribution of the number of goods that are above 2%
- I want to see the next inflation reading and then decide on what to do in Sept
- A 50 bps is still a substantial move
- I don't see the risk of a sustained, deep recession to be very high but it could change the Fed's stance
- I'm not in the camp of taking rates way up and then right back down
- Medium-to-long term neutral rate is around 2.5%.
It was notable that he emphasized that 50 bps is still a substantial move. The line about 'sitting for awhile' after hiking above 3% also sounded a bit rehersed. That's likely to be the message from the Fed at Jackson hHole but the market's absorbed a lot of it already. Fed fund futures hit 3.7% in Feb and only slip to 3.4% at 2023 year end.