Fed's Kashkari
Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari is speaking in Buenos Aires and says:
- Economy in final stages of getting inflation back to 2%.
- It's unclear how restrictive monetary policy is.
- The job market remains strong.
- Recent jobs data shows labor market isn't weakening quickly.
- Further modest rate cuts appear appropriate.
- Future path of monetary policy to be driven by data, economy's performance.
The Fed pivoted at their last meeting with a 50 basis point cut. The move was the start of a "recalibration" of rate to the inflation rate which has been declining. Since then, the employment data came in stronger than expected and CPI was also a little bit higher than expected last week (PPI was a little bit more contained). Nevertheless, some Fed officials including Goolsby and now Kashkari recognize the data but still feel there is that buffer between inflation and the current Fed funds rate which is thought to be restrictive.
The futures market are implying a 84% chance of a 25 basis point cut and November and a near 16% chance of note change in policy.