- It is far too soon to conclude that inflation has peaked
- Wage pressures show little sign of abating
- We need to raise rates to 'somewhat above 4%' by early next year, then hold it there
- I do not anticipate rate cuts next year
- Sees unemployment rate rising 'somewhat above 4%' by end of next year
The message is consistent with what we have seen after Powell's speech at Jackson Hole but there is still no definitive answer as to what they might do next month. Mester says that the "size of rate hikes at each meeting depends on the inflation outlook" and we might not get much clarity until the next US CPI data release on 13 September. But at least they are pushing back quite a bit against the so-called Fed pivot for the time being.