- We need to move to a much more restrictive setting
- We need to frontload rate hikes, large increases early
- After we get to neutral, then we can flatten out increases
- As second half of the year comes in, we'll be in better position to move according to data
- I support 75 bps in July and probably 50 bps in Sept
- We need to get inflation under control
- Better to err in on side that inflation expectations might be coming unanchored
- Sees jobs report tomorrow in the region of 275K (consensus is 268K)
- It's not clear we're going to have a recession despite news on GDP
- I think fears of a recession are overblown
- Economy is reasonably strong
- Effect of balance sheet reduction already priced in
- We have a good shot at a soft landing
- We're seeing diveregences between GDP and GDI; it's odd to add 2.5m workers and have GDP go down
- I need to see core PCE come down to 2.5-3% before feeling comfortable on really reducing interest rates
- There's not a chance he would be comfortable with 3% inflation
- Most of the inflation issue is demand-side driven
- If we can slow growth down for 9 months to a year that would be sufficient to get inflation back down without causing a recession
Waller is a hawk is this isn't surprising but the bulls might have hoped for something a bit more measured. The market is pricing in an 87% chance of 75 bps on July 27. It had fallen as low as 50% this week.
My takeaway from both Waller and Bullard is that growth is a bigger part of the equation than they're letting on. If they see a recession it will mean that inflation is tamed, in their eyes.