NY Fed Pres. Williams is the next speaker and he says:
- Monetary policy is data-dependent in a highly uncertain environment.
- Government policy outlook is the main source of uncertainty.
- Monetary policy is "well-positioned" for the economic outlook.
- Disinflation process to continue but could be choppy.
- Improvement in supply/demand balance allowed rate cuts.
- Balance sheet drawdown proceeding smoothly.
- Expects growth to moderate to 2% this year.
- Expects unemployment rate to hold between 4%–4.25%.
- Sees move to 2% inflation over coming years.
- Housing-related inflation pressures are easing.
- Economy has returned to balance.
- Inflation expectations are anchored
Lots of uncertainty from the voting member.
The expectations for a cut increased today, but the market is still 50/50 (or just below) for a 2nd cut in December
A look at yields:
- 2 year 4.289%, -7.6 basis points
- 5 year 4.470%, -12 basis points
- 10 year 4.669%, -11.9 basis points
- 30 year 4.85%, -9.9 basis points