• The FOMC dot plot for May 2023 show the median rate at the end of 2023 at 5.6% versus 5.1% in March 2023
  • For 2024, the median fed funds target rate is 4.6% vs 4.3% in March
  • For 2025, the median fed funds target rate is 3.4% vs 3.1% in March

Below is the dot plot for June 2023:

.Plot
Dot plot from June 2023

As a comparison, the dot plot from March 2023 showed:

Fed
Dot plot from March 2023

The table central tendencies from June 2023 shows:

Central tendencies
June central tendencies

Highlights from the central tendencies:

  • PCE inflation for 2023 moved to 3.2% from 3.3% in March
  • Core PCE for 2023 moved to 3.9% from 3.6% March
  • Unemployment target for 2023 4.1% vs 4.5% in March
  • GDP 1.0% vs 0.4% in March

The Fed pivoted to a hawkish pause in rates as the projected terminal rate increased to 5.6% from 5.1% in March. That implies 2 more hikes in 2023. In 2024 they raise the end of your rate to 4.6%. In 2024 they see PCE inflation dipping to 2.5% from 3.2% in 2023. They still see the core inflation rate at 2.6% in 2024 from 3.9% in 2023.