AI image
- "Substantial majority" supported 50bp cut
- "Almost all" participants agreed upside risks to inflation had diminished
- Most said downside risks to employment had increased
- A few participants noted that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization
- Committee gained "greater confidence" inflation moving sustainably toward 2% goal
- Risks to employment and inflation goals now seen as "roughly in balance"
- Economic activity expanding at "solid pace", job gains slowed but unemployment remains low
- Inflation made "further progress" but still "somewhat elevated"
- Most participants see balanced risks to inflation outlook
- Some members would have preferred 25bp cut, citing still-elevated inflation and solid growth
- Bowman dissented, preferring 25bp cut due to core inflation well above target
- Members anticipate moving toward more neutral policy stance over time if data evolves as expected
- Committee will "carefully assess" data for additional rate adjustments
Some participants noted there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point cut at the previous meeting, and data since then provided further evidence of sustainable progress on inflation. However, some participants indicated they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction, citing that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low.
I don't see much in these minutes that would shift the debate on what the FOMC will do next but the odds of a hold in November are at 20%, up from 15% earlier today.