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Goldman Sachs Research discusses its expectations for the US economic outlook over the coming months.
- "In the US, we expect GDP growth to slow to 1.4% in 2023, reflecting a negative impulse from tighter financial conditions. We see a below-consensus 35% probability of entering a recession over the next year due to continued labor market rebalancing and a diminishing drag from fiscal and monetary policy tightening," GS notes.
- "We expect the Fed to deliver 25bp hikes in March and May for a peak funds rate of 5.00-5.25%. On the fiscal policy front, additional funding in the FY2023 spending bill presents upside risk to our assumption of roughly flat real federal spending growth in 2023," GS adds.
