Data from China on Thursday ICYMI:
Overall credit growth (aggregate financing) was only CNY907.9 bn in October
- compared with September of CNY3530 bn
- October 2020 was CNY1617.6 bn
- mortgage loans grew only CNY33.2 bn.
These are very weak numbers indeed. October (and Q4 as a whole) is seasonally a slow time but these results are way worse than that.
Bank loans are up by their smallest in almost five years. Capital Economics note that the data shows an extremely unusual outright fall in lending to households. This highlights how difficult it is for policymakers trying to stimulate growth amidst the blanket suppression of activity by draconian zero COVID restrictions. If there is a light in the tunnel its that President Xi ''s new Politburo, while insisting on the need to stick with the zero-COVID policy, is nevertheless urging a more targeted restriction approach. For example Guangzhou is in the midst of a targeted lockdown of only 3 of its 11 districts, rather than a city-wide lock up.
